Estimate Of The Situation

The Estimate of the Situation was a document written in 1948 by personnel of the USAF Project Sign, including the project's director, Captain Robert Sneider, that explained the reasons for concluding that "the extraterrestrial hypothesis" was the best explanations for flying saucers. As late as 1960, the Air Force claimed that the document didn't exist. But many sources describe the report as being a real document that was suppressed and describe the report as "The Holy Grail of Ufology".

As background, Project Sign was established in late 1947, and was charged with investigating flying saucer reports. Sign's personnel operated on the principle that the subject should be taken seriously, on the grounds that these mysterious visitors may represent genuine aircraft whose origins are mysterious and possibly threatening US security.

It is believed that The Estimate of the Situation was completed in September, 1948. The Estimate argued that flying saucer reports coincided with what was then the close approach of the Mercury, Venus of Mars to Earth and that these planets could be being used as staging bases for a surveillance of Earth by some extraterrestrial intelligence. The report also predicted a wave of flying saucer sightings in October, 1948. It is worth noting that this wave of sightings actually occurred.

The report also sparked huge debate at the Pentagon. Soon after, the Pentagon disbanded Project Sign and replaced it with Project Grudge. Project Grudge was tasked with the singular mission of debunking flying saucer sightings.